Selection of approaches to logistic risk estimate by subjects of pharmaceutical industry

Abstract

Subjects of pharmaceutical industry usually function in the conditions of uncertainty and dynamic environment. Pharmaceutical industry is characterized by logistics risks with specific properties of drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients and active substances. Logistic risk in the pharmaceutical industry is an event that results in losses of SPI or makes the possibility of an adverse situation or irrelevant results which related to traffic flows within the pharmaceutical logistic chain when changing external and internal factors. The availability of a large number of logistic risks makes it necessary to reduce risk of SPI logistic activity, and, consequently, to develop risk management mechanism. The algorithm of logistic risk management of SPI includes seven steps. In the first stage the analysis of SPI logistic operations is conducted, in the second stage there are analyzed their logistic risks and causes, on the basis of which is formed sampling data that characterize logistic activity results of SPI. In the third stage, there is quantitative and quality estimation of the logistic risks which were identified in the previous step. At the fourth level there is the analysis of internal and external factors and their on a logistic risk. Based on the previous analysis the scenarios of development of situation are developed in relation to the threat of origin of certain logistic risk and the methods of estimation of logistic risks are elected. The sixth stage is estimated logistic risk. Based on the previous analysis the necessity of calculation of integral logistic risk is reasonable.